El paper essencial dels serveis ecosistèmics dels boscosrelacions espacials, implicacions en la conservació i risc enfront pertorbacions del canvi climàtic

Resumen

Forest ecosystems provide a wide variety ecosystem services (ES). Understanding how these ES are distributed across the landscape and identifying their main drivers is essential to inform policy to protect, enhance and restore these ecosystems. Besides, protected areas (PAs) are fundamental for biodiversity conservation and the provision of ES, yet their effectiveness in maintaining ES and biodiversity is still unclear. Currently, forests are increasingly under pressure from climate change, resulting in changes in disturbance regimes (e.g., wildfires, drought, insect-outbreaks and windstorms). Predicting where these natural hazards will occur in the future and to what extent forest ES will be affected are also fundamental research challenges. The general objective of this thesis is to analyze the spatial distribution of forest ES, their relevance in conservation and their vulnerability and risk to climate change hazards, especially wildfires. To do so, 1) we have analyzed the spatial distribution, relationship and drivers of forest carbon stocks and biodiversity in two regions and five subclimates; 2) we have determined the role of PAs in preserving ES and biodiversity in forests and shrublands of Catalonia; 3) we have developed a general framework of forest vulnerability and risk of losing ES due to different climate change hazards; and 4) we have assessed the spatial patterns and drivers of forest vulnerability to wildfires and the corresponding risk of losing ES in Catalonia. We have found a general positive relationship between carbon stocks and biodiversity, with the highest values in northern Spain (humid Mediterranean subclimate) and southern Quebec (temperate subclimate). High density and structural diversity have simultaneously favored carbon stocks, tree and overall biodiversity. The variables positively affecting carbon and biodiversity have been also driving their hotspots, emphasizing the viability of ‘win-win’ solutions. Regarding PAs, we have found more carbon stocks, coverage of community-interest habitats, priority-habitats and geological-interest sites in PAs than in buffer zones, but none of the biodiversity variables considered have showed differences between PAs and buffer zones. PAs with higher degree of protection have not provided higher levels of ES and biodiversity, or vice versa. Furthermore, we have proposed a general framework to assess forest vulnerability and risk based on the components of exposure, hazard magnitude, susceptibility and lack of adaptive capacity. Finally, we have applied this general framework to the particular case of wildfires in Catalonia. The results have indicated that hazard magnitude is the most important factor defining ES at risk from wildfires. Climate is the main driving factor of ES at risk under average conditions, but forest functional type - in particular non-Mediterranean conifers that have low adaptive capacity - have gained importance under extreme conditions. The highest increases in risk have been found in relatively wet forests with currently low risk, which according to climate trends will become common in the future. Overall, this thesis has gained evidence on the positive relationship between carbon stocks and biodiversity and their main drivers in five subclimates, and has showed that the conservation strategy in Catalonia is only effective at maintaining some of the ES and conservation variables considered. It has also contributed with an innovative conceptual framework of forest vulnerability and risk of losing ES due to climate change hazards, constituting a basis for a systematic operationalization of forest risk and vulnerability. The application of this framework to the case of wildfires has showed relevant implications on the future risk of losing ES due to wildfires, which could contribute to future-oriented policies by anticipating conditions associated with particularly high risks and guiding efficient forest management.