A new tool for failure analysis in small firmsfrontiers of financial ratios based on percentile differences (PDFR)

  1. María T. Tascón 1
  2. Francisco J. Castaño 1
  3. Paula Castro 1
  1. 1 Universidad de León
    info

    Universidad de León

    León, España

    ROR https://ror.org/02tzt0b78

Revista:
Revista española de financiación y contabilidad

ISSN: 0210-2412

Año de publicación: 2018

Volumen: 47

Número: 4

Páginas: 433-463

Tipo: Artículo

DOI: 10.1080/02102412.2018.1468058 DIALNET GOOGLE SCHOLAR

Otras publicaciones en: Revista española de financiación y contabilidad

Resumen

Este documento propone una metodología innovadora que usa diferencias entre percentiles para calcular puntuaciones y distancias al fracaso de empresas o grupos de empresas. Se basa en las diferencias significativas entre el grupo de empresas fracasadas y la población a la que ese grupo pertenece (mismo sector, periodo y zona geográfica seleccionados) y elimina los efectos de la correlación entre los factores empleados para calcular las puntuaciones. El uso de ratios contables, que pueden calcularse con los datos disponibles en los estados financieros obligatorios, y la homogeneización de estas variables mediante el cálculo de percentiles, hacen del PDFR una herramienta especialmente orientada a las PyMEs. Nuestros resultados para la selección de las variables más discriminantes son consistentes con los obtenidos en estudios previos, y las tasas de acierto de empresas fracasadas y no fracasadas son mejores que las de metodologías tradicionales usadas habitualmente. Además, la metodología propuesta permite calcular distancias al fracaso tanto de empresas individuales como de grupos de empresas. Finalmente, esta metodología identifica cuáles de los inductores financieros utilizados muestran fortalezas o debilidades de la empresa o grupo de empresas, a efectos de una potencial reorganización.

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Fuente de los datos: Dialnet